In fact a lot of Texas' economy relies on access to the US dollar, of which they would absolutely lose access to if there was even the hint of leaving.

So that’s not how it works. The USD is the official currency in more than just the USA, just like the Euro is an official currency in countries outside of Europe. If it’s the currency people trade in then it makes its way inside the territory, no country can prevent their money from being used elsewhere.

They’re physically located in Texas yes, but Texas doesn’t own them, they’re privately owned or owned by a foreign nation. Like the largest oil refinery in Texas isn’t even US, it’s owned by the Government of Saudi Arabia. Texas isn’t claiming ownership of that.

Economic production is still important. We might not loose all of the production, but things like oil refineries can’t be moved out of state. Whatever happens between the Saudis and the new Texas government… that’s their business. As is whatever happens with literally anyone else potentially stuck there. The state of texas currently ranks second for contribution to the US GDP. Companies might choose to stay, might not be able to leave. Some might happily run away to some other state. and yes, the oil refineries are a large part of that contribution.

In fact a lot of Texas’ economy relies on access to the US dollar, of which they would absolutely lose access to if there was even the hint of leaving. One of the things that really boiled over in the US Civil War was that the United States indicated to its trading partners of the time, that they could not do deals with the rebel states. The South was quickly going broke. It would literally be the exact same thing in present day, Texas wouldn’t have an economy because the one thing that keeps that economy running is something they would absolutely lose. Access to every trading partner on the planet.

I agree. it would be absolutely stupid and suicidal to leave the Union. Have you heard Abott speak? Even in this release itself… he’s citing a dissenting opinion by a single USCOTUS… as if it were constitutional fact. I don’t think he’s thought quite that far ahead. Or, for example, where their food would come from. (a lot comes from Mexico… and somehow, I don’t think Mexico would feel inclined to be trading partners…)

At best they might be able to do bilateral trade with not friendly to the US, but they wouldn’t be able to ship it out. The Gulf of Mexico is firmly the United States and Texas distinctly has no navy even closely matching the United States. They can’t go south because “of obvious reasons”, and they wouldn’t be allowed in any airspace and likely the FAA would ban every single flight in and out of the State.

Innocent passage must be allowed- they can’t take stuff on, or dump waste or do anything “prejudicial to peace” but cargo ships passing from a hypothetical Texan state would be able to leave. Currently, the exclusive economic zone for the US extends more or less directly eastward from the texas border with mexico. Likely, that would have to change, extending from the Texas-Louisiana border. They could then presumably cut south-wards and pass between Cuba and mexico and avoid USCG interference altogether.

But remove the fact that they would have to take State ownership of private business and somehow sneak large quantities of it out of their State. The other country they’re trading with knows Texas is trading at a disadvantage. There’s no way they’re asking fair market value for shit. There’s no way those dollars sustain their economy. Losing access to the US dollar would absolutely wreck Texas’ economy and that’s the exact point, because when enough Texans are hungry and their economy has turned to dust, the citizens will likely have a heart-to-heart with their Governor about this whole “leaving” businesses.

To the first part… what makes you think they don’t want to do that? regardless, they don’t necessarily have to do that. Its not like they won’t allow private companies at all- after all, the new texan oligarchs, and as you say, the Saudis will have something to say about it.

Well the thing to remember is that we’re supposed to be a country of law and order. We’re supposed to settle things inside a court room. And ideally, that’s where Biden should go. Abbott’s reasoning is completely unsound legally and relies on a reading of Art. I, § 10, C. 3 that’s only enjoyed by Scalia.

this would be more than a sternly worded speech, yes. Biden is unlikely to do that, though.

I get the temptation to hand out smack down, but we should stick to order at all times. Even with the Civil War before, the US waited until the Confederates struck first. All the cards are in the US government’s favor. All the economic factors are in the US favor. There’s not a whole lot that Texas has over the United States on this matter. There’s no reason for the US to even remotely push on the matter while Abbott is clearly content with digging his own grave here.

completely agree. Things I think might be prudent:

• nationalizing the Texas national guard and ordering them to barracks. or indeed to provide protective and support services to BP agents, etc. this removes them from Abbott’s control and places (probably dubious) fighting force on their soil. I don’t know that we can rely on them for anything critical… but… they should be good for at least just sitting this one out.
• Starting hearings in the senate to remove Abbott under the 14th amendment. we all know what section three says: insurrectionists are forbidden from serving. Section five says the power to make that decision “lies with congress”…ambiguous, but outside of confederate peeps and a jan 6 guy, the only person the 14th was invoked to remove- Victor Berger- Was a representative from WI… and was removed after a full vote of the House. an argument could be made that a vote from the senate is sufficient to the cause. -ask the courts to weigh in and forcing compliance. But the courts have already weighed in… if they continue to refuse; an appropriate escalation of force is not simply lawful, but I submit necessary. Biden is going to pander and try to play bipartisan deal-maker while watering down his own power to avoid an outright conflict. This has been the centrist-DNC strategy for decades and is precisely why Abbott thinks he can get away with it. -Cease all federal aid to Texas until they return to compliance. -Do something about Abbott’s sending immigrants to other cities/states.

as a side note, this is a problem of GOP’s making. They’ve been frozen on immigration for ages. It needs funding and reform; they need to expedite asylum claims, maybe even allow asylum seekers to get work permits so they can be self sufficient while waiting for the final claim. (and, you know, not working for a pittance from exploitive assholes.)