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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: August 9th, 2023

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  • Russia has a unique problem, and it is war. Just not the war in Ukraine by itself.

    WWII was absolutely devastating to the Soviet Union’s population. Tons of “excess females”, which means there were so many men killed that women could not find a husband. The baby boom did not happen there; kinda the opposite. This affects both modern Russia and Ukraine.

    Every 20 years or so, there is an “echo” of that loss in their population pyramid. It’s a drop in birth rates new births from a relative lack of young adults starting families for part of the cycle. The echo reduces with each cycle, of course, but one of them is hitting right now. Putin is now amplifying that echo by having another war with such high losses.

    Edit: clarified some wording.







  • Right, it gets into Russia’s navy problem, which they’ve had for centuries and have never had a very good solution. Murmansk is one of the few (only?) ports they have that can reliably get ships out to the Atlantic. Black Sea ports have to go through the narrow channel at Istanbul (controlled by a NATO country, Turkey), and then you have to go through Gibraltar (England) or the Suez Canal (Egypt) (and you’d have to go around Africa if you go that way).

    St Petersburg and Kaliningrad are on the Baltic sea, which is surrounded by NATO countries now. Even before then, the narrow opening in the North Sea could be easily blockaded.

    Everything else is too far away. The sheer size of the country is both Russia’s greatest defense and their biggest headache.

    See also, this Drachinifel video about the Russian Baltic Fleet during the Russian Japanese War, where the fleet traveled the long way around, nearly starts a war with England, shoots up a bunch of civilian vessels and themselves, only to be curb stomped by the fledgling Japanese navy once they finally got there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag

    Yeah, Czar Nicky Two was a bad ruler. Putin has made some boneheaded decisions, but he’s a political genius next to Nicky.

    I once told my wife “I love you more than Russia loves warm water ports” and they were absolutely smitten with the nerdiness. Which is why I married them.